With playoffs starting next week, I wanted to get some thoughts out there on every local team. Please be aware that the seeds and playoff pairings I post are projected. The official pairings are not released until Monday morning.
My boys hockey review/preview
Girls Hockey
Boys Basketball -- Division I:
(#6)BFA-St. Albans (11-9) -- host (#11)Essex in first round:
Same old same for the Bobwhites. Very good season, entering the playoffs with the nagging feeling that it would be better off in the playoffs with a slightly lower seed after playing a Metro schedule. Taking control of the Lake year in and year out is admirable but does St. Albans no favors come March. BFA has been in the top 10 each year for the last six years and has had a home game four of those years. In that span, no Bobwhite team has made it out of the second round.
#4 2011 (lost in 2nd round)
#5 2010 (lost in 2nd round)
#9 2009 (lost in 1st round)
#9 2008 (lost in 1st round)
#8 2007 (lost in 1st round)
#4 2006 (lost in 1st round)
Of BFA's 13 games against Division I opponents this season, only six were against teams which finished with winning records. This Bobwhite squad is talented, fit and potentially dangerous. It took Mt. Mansfield, the top team in the state, to the final seconds on the road before losing by three. There isn't a team St. Albans can't beat when it plays its best. But I can't help thinking BFA would be more confident right now as an eight or nine seed with fewer games against Milton and Montpelier and more against CVU and Rice. I love the fire of these kids and could see them playing in Patrick Gym in a couple of weeks following a great run. Unfortunately, I could also see them being upset in the first round by the struggling Hornets.
(#7)Missisquoi Valley Union (11-9) -- host (#10)Burlington in first round:
Similar to BFA in that it has a much higher seed because of its Lake schedule than it would if it played Metro. But unlike the Bobwhites, MVU doesn't belong in the Metro. In fact, the Thunderbirds barely belong in Division I and were just moved up this year after winning the Division II title last year. Missisquoi may be the top seed in its first round matchup but will have to bust its butt for any victory from here on out. The T-Birds finished just 3-4 against Division I opponents and didn't beat a D-I team which finished .500 or better.
That being said, I'm not willing to bet against MVU. The team already exceeded my expectations by playing as well as it did this season. Let's remember, not only was this MVU's first year in Division I, but it was playing without five of its top six players from last year's D-II title team! To win from this point forward, Matt St. Amour will need to be on his game each night and everyone else will have to play to full potential. There isn't a team in the forecast that Missisquoi can beat if St. Amour is having an off-night or if everyone else is at 80%. Just keep in mind, MVU always has a shot at the start of any game because it always has the best player on the court. It will take inspired play for these guys to move beyond the second round (especially since a round two matchup will likely be against Rice), but it's not impossible.
Boys Basketball -- Division II
(#11)Milton (9-11) -- at (#6)Burr&Burton in first round:
Simply put, Milton underachieved this season. 9-11 is nowhere near what this team is capable of, even if it does play a tougher schedule than many D-II teams. Derryk O'Grady is one of the best pure shooters in the state. Jamie Holbrook, on his way to Southern Connecticut on a football scholarship, is a strong a post player as you'll find. The Yellowjackets' have more than enough suitable role players to be a Division II contender. Caleb Harris is a plenty capable point guard, Nik Couture is a tremendous athlete, the list goes on.
Has a high school basketball team ever sandbagged 90% of a regular season? I'm thinking we may have the first case. I can see this Milton team beating anyone on a good day, even almighty Vergennes. After losing to MVU two weeks ago, Milton coach Jim O'Grady told me his team was going to shock somebody in the tournament. What he didn't tell me was that Milton wasn't even going to wait until the tournament. In its next game, Milton knocked off a BFA-St. Albans team I would have bet hundreds of dollars in favor of.
O'Grady (the player) missed a few games with a bad ankle injury and I'm not sure if he's 100%. If he is at full strength, Milton is going to make a run fueled at some point by nine straight from the junior guard. But even if he's not 100%, O'Grady (the coach) was on to something when he said his squad would upset some higher seeds.
Boys Basketball -- Division III
(#1)Enosburg (18-2) -- hosts (#16)Stowe in first round:
I saw that Will Gleason went down with a broken wrist on January 14th. In the coming days I stated to multiple people that Enosburg's season was done. Most of the money I've made covering games since then has gone into gum and mints while I try desperately to get the taste of my foot out of my mouth. Since then, the Hornets' have gone 11-1 and outscored its opponents by 137 points. Enosburg lost once to D-I Missisquoi, it also beat MVU twice. Enosburg lost to Winooski in just its third game without Gleason, it wrapped up the season by beating the Spartans on the road. Nobody has beaten Enosburg on the road this season, good luck facing them in Barre. I'm not saying the Hornets are a lock to win the title, but I don't see anyone without a great big man beating them. These guys know how to blow opponents out (six wins of 20+points) and they know how to win close games (five wins by less than five points). Best of all, this group is fun to watch. They defend --see Wyatt Lockdown Larose on my all-county team-- and they transition into a beautiful fast break. It's going to be an interesting D-III tournament. Like Fairfax, Enosburg hasn't seen teams #2-5 so we can't be totally sure what to expect, but I do expect some entertaining basketball.
***Update 2-27-12*** Enosburg ended up with a bye in the first round with no 16th team eligible for the postseason. It might be a good thing for the Hornets to have more time to prepare for its quarterfinal game. Should (#8)Winooski beat (#9)Peoples, Enosburg will be facing a Spartan team which was the only outside of Division I to beat it all season. The Hornets' games with Winooski this year were decided by just three and seven points.
(#6)BFA-Fairfax (12-8) -- hosts (#11)Windsor in first round
(#13)Richford (4-16) -- at (#4)Randolph in first round
I'm lumping Fairfax and Richford together for the lazy reason of only having seen each a few times and neither in the last month. Also, I don't know of anyone from either school who reads my blog, so this could just be the section that gets in the way while people are scrolling to the bottom.
While I'm not as familiar with these two as the rest, I do know that neither should be taken lightly in the postseason tournament. Richford has improved greatly on years past and has enough good athletes to be competitive night in and night out. Its youth suggests the Rockets' will only be stronger next year and the Richford boys have made it clear that they no longer intend to be the bookend on the bottom of the standings.
Fairfax is always well coached and dangerous. Kris Wehner is always stuck in fifth gear and is often the best player on the floor. BFA loses some ground in the standings because of its tough schedule (which included a visit from D-I Missisquoi this season) but is built to thump D-III opponents. THE BULLETS ARE 10-0 THIS SEASON AGAINST DIVISION III TEAMS FROM PLACES THAT DON'T RHYME WITH SCHMENOSBURG! Sorry to go all caps on you, but that's a huge statistic. 10-2 against its own division is impressive (though it's worth noting that Enosburg is the only D-III team in the top 5 that BFA played). Equally impressive is the fact that Fairfax improved greatly on a 30 point loss to Enosburg early this season and fell by just two when they squared off again in February. Nobody in the Division III tournament is safe against BFA.
Kaufmann's Korner All County Boys Basketball Team:
A reminder from the fall, this is a little different than other all-star teams for a few reasons: First of all, nobody really cares. Secondly, these aren't the 10 best players I've covered this winter, they're the best teams I could send out to represent Franklin County in a state-wide tournament. It's close to an all-star team, but more fun to create. Finally, when I say Franklin County, I'm taking the geographical liberty of including Milton because this is my blog and I can do whatever I want.
First Team:
G- Matt St. Amour (MVU)
G- Wyatt Larose (Enosburg)
F- Will Gleason (Enosburg)
F- Nik Couture (Milton)
F- Ben Thieken (BFA-St. Albans)
Second Team:
G- Brett McCallister (Richford)
G- Branden Gleason (Enosburg)
G/F- Kris Wehner (BFA-Fairfax)
F- Darren Callan (BFA-St. Albans)
F- Jamie Holbrook (Milton)
*Of the four all-county teams I did this winter, I found boys basketball to be the hardest. I ended up leaning toward defense over offense. Good luck to anyone without a 6'5" center who wants to score on these lineups. In making these teams, I left off three of the best 3-point shooters in northern Vermont (Derryk O'Grady, Dylan Callan and Dallas Desroches...the larger than life triple D's!!!).
